Here are some quotes from some
great traders and investors"
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" I
haven't met a rich technician" Jim Rogers.
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"I
always laugh at people who say "I've never met a rich technician" I
love that! It's such an arrogant, nonsensical response. I used
fundamentals for 9 years and got rich as a technician" Mary Schwartz.
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"Diversify
your investments" John Templeton.
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"Diversification
is a hedge for ignorance" William O'Neil.
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"Don't
bottom fish" Peter Lych.
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"Don't
try to buy at the bottom or sell at the top" Bernard Baruch
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"Maybe
the trend is your friend for a few minutes in Chicago, but for the most
part it is rarely a way to get rich" Jim Rogers.
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"I
believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says
you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your
money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have
been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at
tops and bottoms." Paul Tudor Jones.
So
here we have a group of guys who have collectively taken billions of
dollars out of the market and they don't agree on a damn thing
regarding how to make money. Not one. So what is a person to do? Is
there anything they do agree on? Just one:
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"My
basic advise is don't lose money" Jim Rogers.
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"I'm
more concerned about controlling the downside. Learn to take the
losses. The most important thing about making money is not to let your
losses get out of hand." Marty Schwartz.
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"I'm
always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don't
focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have" Paul Tudor
Jones.
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"Rule
number one of investing is never lose money. Rule number two is never
forget rule number 1" Warren Buffet.
There really are a lot of ways to make money in the market. There are
tons of seminars you can pay for that will tell you "How I made $1
katrillion dollars in the stock market" and its sister book "How I
Double my Money Every Hour" is available in many different forms too
for only $29.95. All of these will tell you some patterns that will
work sometimes and won't others. Some might have you going long with
Jimmy Rogers, while others will have you doing it with Bernard Baruch,
but when it gets right down to it the most critical part of making
money, is not losing much. Your always going to take stops and lose
some. But you don't want to lose much, because you won't make a penny
tomorrow if you go broke today.
One
of the most common mistakes traders will make is that of "risking the
whole wad". There is not a faster way to have bad things happen to you
than to do this. Studies have been done that suggest the most you
should risk on any one trade is 2%. And most pros will tell you that is
way too much and they risk 1/4 % to 1% on each trade. The idea here is
that no one trades is going to really effect you either way. You're not
going to get rich, but your also not going to have to sell the house,
as has happened to people.
One other benefit of small positions is that
it allows you some freedom from worry. If you are risking a fairly
small amount, your not going to get shaken out. You're also not going
to find yourself in a position where you say "Shesh, I can't lose this
much money" and you turn bad trade into a terrible investment. So, if
you are serious about this, if you want to make it long term you will
practice sound money control. Before you ever enter a trade, the first
thing you should ask yourself is how much am I risking here because,
remember that while we are here to make money, we won't make any if we
go broke.
The key to not going broke is to respect
risk, take small positions that wont allow you to blow out. You must
always keep in mind that in trading you are only playing the odds. You
may have a setup that is correct 75% of the time but each trade is a
random event. It doesn't take into account the last trade. If you have
a 75% system, you can still be wrong 10 times in a row, and if you
trade for any amount of time it will happen.
I once thought I had a foolproof way to make
money at roulette. I would bet on black and red. I would sit at the
table, and after the ball had landed on black or red 5 times in a row I
would start to bet on the opposite color (so if it were 5 reds in a row
I would start to bet on black) Then, if I was wrong, I would go ahead
and double down, meaning that if my starting bet is $1, the next time I
will be $2, then $4, then $8, then $16 ect. Eventually I would win, and
would come out $1 ahead. So I am 13 years old and really thinking I
have the Holy Grail. If its so easy for a 13 year old to figure out,
why is it that all the casinos are not out of business and we are all
millionaires. Simple. It does not work.
If
we are flipping coins heads has a 50% chance of turning up on each
roll, and so does tails. But each flip is independent of the last. The
last coin toss has nothing to do with the one before it. It's a random
event. There is a certain chance heads will occur on this roll, or that
tails will. But which of them it is that comes up is a random
occurrence. Each time you flip a coin it is one flip of a coin amongst
the billions of times coins have been flipped. That's why you can roll
100 heads in a row if you do it long enough. That's why the first time
I played roulette black came up 19 times in a row and I went home
defeated.
Trading is the same. We have a certain
percentage of our trades that will work out, and a certain percentage
that will not. But your next trade has nothing to do with your last
one. So even if you have the world's most accurate method, over time
you will go broke if you don't practice good money management and risk
control.
So now that we all understand why money
management and risk control are very important lets cover exactly how
to apply these rules to your trading. As I stated before, you shouldn't
ever risk more than 2% of your account on one trade. But, as I also
said, that's a bit much for most people and I'm in that group of most
people. I like to keep my risk to around 1%. So lets focus our
attention on risking 1% of your account on a trade. For the sake of
this example let's just assume you have a very average account size,
$25,000:
Say you are scanning tonight and come across
XYZ which looks like it might be a great swingtrade buy if it trades at
15 3/16. The low of the prior day is 14 1/2. This means you will place
your stop at 14 7/16, risking 3/4 of a point on this trade. Assuming a
$25,000 trading account you can lose up to $250 per trade. You will use
this number to determine how many shares you can buy, which in this
case is up to, but not more than 333. Most people don't like to do odd
lots, so would round down to 300. Never round up because then you throw
the risk control out the window.
Let me leave you with a few more quotes on
risk control:
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"If
you have an approach that makes money, then money management can make
the difference between success and failure... ... I try to be
conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I'll be around
to play tomorrow. Risk control is essential." - Monroe Trout
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"If
you personalize losses, you can't trade." - Bruce Kovner
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"The
best traders have no ego. You have to swallow your pride and get out of
the losses." - Tom Baldwin
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"Never
risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%,
I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and
constant is absolutely critical." Larry Hite
While all of these guys have different
methods for making money, each of them agrees that risk control is the
single most important aspect of trading. These individuals are the best
in the world and the only thing they agree on is risk control. Think
about it...