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Buy Setup: Convergys Corporation (CVG) provides relationship management solutions. The company's solutions enable its clients to drive value from the relationships with their customers and employees.

Sector: Technology
Industry: Business Software & Services

CVG is a bit of an unusual pick in that I often go with stocks heading in the direction of a larger trend for a position trade. There have been notable exceptions, however, and CVG is one of them. The pattern that has been developing in CVG is similar to the short given in EXC which triggered heading in June and dropped sharply in July. It involves three key pivots following a sharp momentum move. In EXC this momentum move was a push higher with three slightly higher highs. In CVG it is a sharp drop followed by three slightly lower lows on the monthly time frame. Unlike EXC, we don't have the chance to catch CVG directly off its third low, however, the larger pattern has a longer term outlook.

Although at resistance currently, the next major resistance zone is $17-$18 a share, which will serve as the initial target level. If the momentum is strong into that target, then shares can easily land in the $24 zone over the next year. The volume surge into the beginning of last August confirmed that initial move lower as an exhaustion move. The volume has since increased coming off the third low, providing confirmation to the reversal. I will be looking for daily continuation patterns on the upside to build a position. $11.50 is support in the zone of the July low.

Another stock with a monthly pattern comparable to CVG is VMC. It is also already under way, but a Phoenix (first base after pivoting off the low) would be worth watching for to catch another upside move.

Watch Stocks:
Long: VMC, S, JEC, UNM, MHS, ANAT
Short: -

Brandon Fredickson's Blog: http://p5equities.blogspot.com/
Toni Hansen's Blog: http://www.tonihansen.com/blog
Positions in green have triggered and are profitable. Positions in red have triggered but are not yet profitable. Those in blue have not yet triggered.

NOTE: A lot of positions were closed this past week with trailing stops and exits under support levels. Those that were closed are now located in the larger record.

8/18/2008 Altra Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ: AIMC) ... Excerpts: In the case of AIMC this has been a strong stock, refusing to decline, even during the bear phase the market has gone through most of this year. One of the strongest buying patterns is a long, sideways type price “basing” move, which we see has been forming in Altra since early May. The stock has been on my radar for a few months, and I think that it's now getting close to an entry. Altra reported very solid second quarter results that beat estimates for its revenue and EPS numbers... All of this, along with the technical picture I presented above has me bullish on AIMC if it can close above $18.25 per share on above average volume... AFAM had much better traits overall and I was more aggressive with that position than I will be with this one, which offer the potential of outsized returns. - Brandon Fredrickson

Watch Stocks:
Long: SYMC, ALTR, ABT, MAT

8/11/2008 TD Ameritrade Hldg. Corp. (AMTD) Since late 2005/beginning of 2006, AMTD has once again fallen into a correction phase. This phase has lasted longer than the one in 2004-2005, but it has formed a nice change of pace within the congestion, particularly since mid-2007. This has created a cup-with-handle on the monthly time frame. The handle has matured nicely and is currently favoring a stronger break higher. While this breakout began on a daily time frame several weeks ago, it is still at an early stage on the monthly time frame, so I will begin to build a position in this stock. The longer monthly correction, as compared to 2004 into 2005, creates higher odds for a two-wave continuation to mirror the action from early 2003 into late 2005. This places a larger target in the $36.50 zone.

Watch Stocks:
Long: UNM, JNPR, JNJ

8/4/2008 Hitachi Limited ADR (HIT). Beginning of position being built from $74.48 zone on 8/8/2008.  My target on HIT is $100-$105. It closed last Friday at $74.86.

Watch Stocks:
Long: AMTD, Symantec Corp. (SYMC) gave an initial higher risk buy trigger on 8/5/2008 over $21.86. It has highs so far of $22.30. It closed on Friday at $21.98., ABI

7/21/2008 Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) gapped significantly past the entry trigger, so unless it was picked up early, this position has not yet been aquired. 

7/14/2008 Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Although we missed the initial trigger on this one about two weeks ago, we still have plenty of room to catch it on smaller time frame corrections. This monthly triangle has just now begun to break higher. My target on RGLD is the $48-50 zone. June's lows will serve as support.

6/23/2008 Almost Family (AFAM) gave an early buy trigger on 6/26/2008 at $26.60. It has highs so far of $44.44 (+$17.84, +67.07%). - Brandon Fredrickson

6/9/2008 Medtronic Inc. (MDT) gave a watch list buy trigger on 7/8/2008 over $52.00. It has highs so far of $56.97 (+$4.97, +9.56%).

6/9/2008 Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS) gave a swingtrade buy trigger on 6/18/2008 over $37.00. It has highs so far of $40.05 (+$3.05, +8.24%). Position trade potential.

6/9/2008 Expeditors Intl Wash Inc. (EXPD) gave a short trigger on 6/11/2008 under $45.71. It has lows so far of $33.71 (+$12, +26.25%). Targets hit on swingtrade.

6/9/2008 Allegheny Tech. Inc. (ATI) gave a short trigger on 6/10/2008 under $66.00. It has lows so far of $43.36 (+$22.64, +34.30%). Targets hit. Given 6/2/2008 in the chatroom under $73.67.

6/2/2008 McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) gave an early buy setup on 6/5/2008 over $37.73. It does still have potential to pull back a bit more on the weekly time frame before it can confirm a larger break of this range. It has highs so far of $41.04 (+$3.31, +8.77%). 

Position Trade Long: TRLG (initial setup already triggered, so correction is ideal before a continuation). Gave a swingtrade buy setup on 8/6/2008 over $26. Highs of $31.70.

6/2/2008 Genworth Finl. Inc. (GNW) gave a short trigger on 6/2/2008 under $22.08. It has lows so far of $14.13 (+$7.93, +36.01%). Targets hit for short term traders.

6/2/2008 XMSR gave a short trigger on 6/2/2008 under $10.49. It has lows so far of $6.78 (+$3.71, +35.37%). Targets hit for short term traders.

6/2/2008 Exelon Corp. (EXC) gave a short trigger on 6/26/2008 under $89.36 with resistance at $92. It hit lows of $72.22 (+$17.14, +19.18%).

4/21/2008 Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) gave a buy trigger on 7/16/2008 at $30.73. It has highs so far of $40.09 (+$9.36, +30.46%). Initial target hit. My target zone is between $42-46.

4/7/2008 Rowan Companies, Inc (RDC) gave an initial buy trigger on 4/18/2008 over $41.78. It has highs so far of $47.72 (+$5.93, +14.19%). My initial target is $53. Some trailing stops hit.

3/3/2008 Universal Health Services Inc. (UHS) gave a watch list buy trigger on 3/25/2008 over $51.82. It has highs so far of $65.87 (+$14.05, +27.11%). Some trailing stops hit on shorter term hold. Momo reversal target hit. Larger weekly correction possible for several months before we see higher highs.

11/12/2007 Lilly Eli & Co. (LLY) gave a short setup on 12/31/2007 under $53.71. It has lows of $45.36 (+$8.35, +15.55%). Some trailing stops hit.

9/24/2007 Martek Biosciences Corp. (MATK) gave an initial buy trigger on 9/24/2007 over $28.84. It has highs so far of $38.55 (+$9.71, +33.67%). Some trailing stops hit. This looks lower this week, so can use right trailing stop on the rest unless willing to hold to the 20 month sma.


* DISCLAIMER: Results are based upon best price hit before the position was closed, or the stop if that hit first. Note: Trading in commodities and securities may not be suitable for all individuals. Consult your broker or other professional to determine your suitability. The discussions provided by Trading From Main Street are for educational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell the referenced security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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