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PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (Ticker: DBA) is one of the many new Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) to have made their way to the market over the last few years as commodities markets have come more and more into public view and moved higher. This particular ETF is made up of various agricultural/grain products. This sector has been talked about a great deal in recent weeks due to rice shortages, the renewed debate over corn based ethonol, etc. 

The ETF itself has been in a very obvious and strong uptrend since it's release. Over the last couple of weeks, however, it has managed to pullback a bit. This is not a bad thing, markets can rarely go straight up without a pullback.

There are a number of supply issues right now weighing in on the ag markets that I feel, in addition to the technical support, could drive the prices higher. First, and maybe most importantly, a lot of the crops that should have been in nearly a month ago in the Midwest's grain belt have not yet even been planted.  This is going to effect yeilds in a negative manner, which will likely drive prices higher. For the time being ethonol is here to stay, for better or worse the economic, and - more importantly - the politcal investment in it is too strong. Look for buying opportunities on daily and 60 minute time frames for a return to highs. $41-$42 initial target

- Brandon Fredrickson
Positions in green have triggered and are profitable. Positions in red have triggered but are not yet profitable. Those in blue have not yet triggered.

5/12/2008 The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT) offered an initial higher risk setup on the daily time frame on to build a position was on May 6 over $28.19. A lower risk trigger took place on 5/14/2008 using the daily/60 min. pullback. 60 minute trigger over $28.04. Daily trigger over $28.26. Also could be used to add to position when building a position with multiple entries. Highs of $29.50 so far. Closed on Friday at $28.98.

5/12/2008  AutoZone Inc. (AZO) (Watch list - Note that AZO is related to GT in that it is also in automotives, although it is technically in the services sector and auto parts industry.) Potential level to begin to build a position was on May 8 over $126.85. Higher risk. As in GT, AZO offered another chance to build upon the position on 5/12/2008 over $124.39. High of $128.90. Closed on Friday at $127.21.

4/28/2008 Greenhill & Co., Inc. (GHL) Potential level to begin to build a position was on April 29 over $67.54. Higher risk. Secondary opportunity was on 5/12/2008 over $62. High of $64.72. Closed on Friday at $63.54.

4/21/2008 Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) operates as a less-than-truckload multi-regional motor carrier primarily in the United States. Since July 2005 ODFL has had two strong pullbacks on the monthly time frame. This took the stock back into support from the correction which took place throughout 2005. Typically a two-wave pullback at highs in a security will lead to a continuation pattern on the upside. ODFL began to rally out of this pattern in January and began to chop around near last year's highs over the past two and a half months. I will begin to build a position on daily setups for a larger continuation to new all-time highs. My target zone is between $42-46.

Watch Stocks:
Short: MDC

4/21/2008 Axcelis Technologies Inc. (ACLS) gave an initial buy trigger on 5/1/2008 over $5.44. It has highs so far of $6.02 (+$0.58, +10.66%).

Watch Stocks:
Short: M&F Worldwide Corp. (MFW) gave a watch list short trigger on 5/12/200 under $34.88. It has lows so far of $33.46 (+$1.42, +4.07%). Additional triggers were on 4/21/2008 under $35.57, 4/22/2008 under $34.50 and 5/8/2008 under $35.41 for those building into the position on 60 min. and daily time frames.

4/7/2008 Rowan Companies, Inc (RDC) gave an initial buy trigger on 4/18/2008 over $41.78. It has highs so far of $46.73 (+$4.95, +11.85%). My initial target is $53.

Watch Stocks:
Long: BFS

4/7/2008 Taubman Ctrs. Inc. (TCO) gave a watch list buy trigger on 4/16/2008 over $53.35. It has highs so far of $58.90 (+$5.55, +10.4%).

4/7/2008 Deere & Co (DE) gave a watch list buy trigger on 4/15/2008 over $87.00. It has highs so far of $94.89 (+$7.89, +9.07%).

3/31/2008 Swift Energy Company (SFY) gave an initial swingtrade buy trigger on 4/4/2008 over $45.89. It came into initial resistance in the $50 zone with highs of $61.49 (+$15.60, +34%). The position trade target zone is $70.

Watch Stocks:
3/31/2008 Long: CSWC remove from watch.

3/31/2008 Corning Inc. (GLW) gave a watch list buy trigger on 4/1/2008 at $24.40. It has highs so far of $27.42 (+$3.02, +12.38%).

3/3/2008 Universal Health Services Inc. (UHS) gave a watch list buy trigger on 3/25/2008 over $51.82. It has highs so far of $63.50 (+$11.68, +22.54%).

2/25/2008 Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) gave an initial buy setup on 2/26/2008 over $22.23. It has highs thus far of $26.13 (+$3.90, +17.54%). This was a bit early on the daily and weekly time frame, so we may see another pullback on the daily chart before it is able to break higher again.

2/4/2008 Bank Mutual Corporation (BKMU), through its subsidiary, Bank Mutual, provides various financial products and services in the state of Wisconsin. BKMU has been stuck in a trading range since the end of 2003 after a strong upside move for over two years. The momentum has begun to swing in favor of an upside breakout from the range. We did miss a great daily entry a few weeks ago, but I'll be watching for continuation moves on the weekly time frame now.

2/4/2008 Patterson Uti Energy Inc. (PTEN) gave a watch list buy trigger on 2/4/2008 at $20.96. It has highs so far of $33.38 (+$12.42, +59.26%). Initial resistance hit.

2/4/2008 Community Bk Sys Inc. (CBU) gave a watch list buy trigger on 2/8/2008 over $22.24. It has highs so far of $26.88 (+$4.64, +20.86%).Some trailing stops hit.

2/4/2008 WestAmerica Bancorporation (WABC) gave a watch list buy trigger on 3/11/2008 over $48.00. It has highs so far of $61.49 (+$13.49, +28.10%).

2/4/2008 C H Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW) gave a watch list buy trigger on 3/12/2008 over $52.68. It has highs so far of $67.36 (+$14.68, +27.87%).  Target hit. (5/12 post)

2/4/2008 Longs to watch: THG

1/7/2008 Aqua America Inc. (WTR) gave a watch list short trigger on 1/9/2008 under $21.04. It has lows so far of $16.82 (+$4.22, +20.36%). Targets hit.

12/10/2007 Bard C R Inc. (BCR) gave a watch list buy trigger on 1/7/2008 over $95.33. It has highs so far of $100.33 (+$5.00, +5.24%).

11/26/2007 Greif, Inc. (GEF) Over the next couple of months I'll be monitoring GEF for more gradual corrections off the upper end of this range on light volume to begin building a position. I am looking for a break higher in GEF in mid-2008. Initial trigger on 11/28/2007. 1/28/2008, 2/26/2008, and 3/24/2008 offered additional entry triggers. It has highs so far of $72.00.

11/12/2007 Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) gave an initial buy trigger on 11/12/2007 over $37. It has highs so far of $48.95 (+$11.95, +32.30%).

11/12/2007 Lilly Eli & Co. (LLY) gave a short setup on 12/31/2007 under $53.71. It has lows of $46.60 (+$7.11, +13.24%). Some trailing stops hit.

10/22/2007 NDS Group (NNDS) gave an early buy trigger on 11/28/2007 over $56. It has highs so far of $63.57 (+$7.57, +13.52%). Now giving the larger weekly correction we were looking at.

9/24/2007 Martek Biosciences Corp. (MATK) gave an initial buy trigger on 9/24/2007 over $28.84. It has highs so far of $36.80 (+$7.96, +27.60%).

9/24/2007 Bard C R Inc. CR (BCR) gave a buy trigger on 9/26/2007 over $87.46. It has highs so far of $100.33 (+$12.87, +14.72%).

9/10/2007 Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) gave a short setup on 9/10/2007 under $44.61. It has lows of $37.75 (+$6.86, +15.38%). Trailing stops hit for many.

9/10/2007 International Rectifier Corp. (IRF) gave a short setup on 9/10/2007 under $33.23. It has lows of $20.34 (+$12.89, +38.79%). Some trailing stops hit.

8/6/2007 Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) gave an initial setup on 8/31/2007 over $32.06, but it can still have one more flush left in it on the monthly time time. It has highs of $59.60 (+$27.54, +85.90%). Initial targets hit. Some trailing stops hit.

12/4/2006 Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) gave a buy setup on 2/23/2007 at $30.08. It reached highs of $59.60 (+$29.52, +98.14%) so far. Initial targets hit. Some trailing stops hit.

* DISCLAIMER: Results are based upon best price hit before the position was closed, or the stop if that hit first. Note: Trading in commodities and securities may not be suitable for all individuals. Consult your broker or other professional to determine your suitability. The discussions provided by Trading From Main Street are for educational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell the referenced security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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