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Toni's Play of the Week:

Greenhill & Co., Inc. (GHL), together with its subsidiaries, operates as an independent investment banking firm in North America and Europe. It provides financial advisory services, such as advice on strategic matters, including domestic and cross-border mergers, acquisitions, restructurings, divestitures, defensive tactics, special committee assignments, and other corporate events.

Sector: Financial
Industry: Investment Brokerage - Regional

From 2004 into early 2006 GHL was in a strong uptrend. In May 2006 it peaked and has been trading in a sideways range ever since. The range has been forming between the $50 zone as support and $80 as resistance. In early 2008 GHL formed a higher low on the weekly time frame and the momentum has shifted to favor the bulls.

I will begin to build a position in GHL using channel breaks on a daily time frames on pullbacks. Since GHL had attempted to break the range early last month, forming new all-time highs, the odds have increased that another strong momentum test of those highs will be able to break them. Given the wide range, however, I do not want to initiate a position all at once. There is still potential for GHL to form another pullback on the daily time frame to create a two-wave pullback. The first wave would be the move off the highs of May with the bounce off mid-April lows forming a possible correction prior to a second pullback before it completes a momentum shift to allow it to break the monthly highs with lower risk. 

Positions in green have triggered and are profitable. Positions in red have triggered but are not yet profitable. Those in blue have not yet triggered.

4/21/2008 Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) operates as a less-than-truckload multi-regional motor carrier primarily in the United States. Since July 2005 ODFL has had two strong pullbacks on the monthly time frame. This took the stock back into support from the correction which took place throughout 2005. Typically a two-wave pullback at highs in a security will lead to a continuation pattern on the upside. ODFL began to rally out of this pattern in January and began to chop around near last year's highs over the past two and a half months. I will begin to build a position on daily setups for a larger continuation to new all-time highs. My target zone is between $42-46.

Watch Stocks:
Short: MDC, ACLS

4/14/2008 Genentech, Inc. (DNA) engages in the discovery, development, manufacture, and commercialization of pharmaceutical products in the United States. DNA is a stock that originally gained my interest in the summer of 2006 when it was coming into its 20 month simple moving average support. After a bit of disappointment it hugged the 20 month sma before giving way to a second wave of selling in 2007. It found support in January and moved sharply higher at that time. This completes a two-wave pullback on the monthly time frame and has opened the door once again for another move higher. The setup is similar to BRK.B in late 2005 and into early 2006, but not exact.

DNA may take a couple of months, but I am watching for an upside breakout from this daily range. If the momentum shifts within this range to give a gradual pullback off the highs of the range on slower momentum than the upside within the range then I will look to use a break in that slower channel to begin to build a position, adding as the channel breaks.

Watch Stocks:
Short: MFW

4/7/2008 Rowan Companies, Inc (RDC) gave an initial buy trigger on 4/18/2008 over $41.78. It has highs so far of $43.27 (+$1.49, +3.57%). My initial target is $53.

Watch Stocks:
Long: BFS, JDSU

4/7/2008 Taubman Ctrs. Inc. (TCO) gave a watch list buy trigger on 4/16/2008 over $53.35. It has highs so far of $58.90 (+$5.55, +10.4%).

4/7/2008 Deere & Co (DE) gave a watch list buy trigger on 4/15/2008 over $87.00. It has highs so far of $94.89 (+$7.89, +9.07%).

3/31/2008 Swift Energy Company (SFY) gave an initial swingtrade buy trigger on 4/4/2008 over $45.89. It came into initial resistance in the $50 zone with highs of $55.82 (+$9.93, +21.64%). The position trade target zone is $70.

Watch Stocks:
3/31/2008 Long: CSWC

3/31/2008 Corning Inc. (GLW) gave a watch list buy trigger on 4/1/2008 at $24.40. It has highs so far of $26.26 (+$1.86, +7.62%).

3/3/2008 Universal Health Services Inc. (UHS) gave a watch list buy trigger on 3/25/2008 over $51.82. It has highs so far of $63.50 (+$11.68, +22.54%).

2/25/2008 Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) gave an initial buy setup on 2/26/2008 over $22.23. It has highs thus far of $26.13 (+$3.90, +17.54%). This was a bit early on the daily and weekly time frame, so we may see another pullback on the daily chart before it is able to break higher again.

2/11/2008 USANA Health Sciences Inc. (USNA) gave an initial short trigger on 2/11/2008 under $38 with resistance at $40.30. It has hit lows so far of $18.25 (+$19.75, +51.97%). Target hit.

2/4/2008 Bank Mutual Corporation (BKMU), through its subsidiary, Bank Mutual, provides various financial products and services in the state of Wisconsin. BKMU has been stuck in a trading range since the end of 2003 after a strong upside move for over two years. The momentum has begun to swing in favor of an upside breakout from the range. We did miss a great daily entry a few weeks ago, but I'll be watching for continuation moves on the weekly time frame now.

2/4/2008 Patterson Uti Energy Inc. (PTEN) gave a watch list buy trigger on 2/4/2008 at $20.96. It has highs so far of $30.15 (+$9.19, +43.85%). Initial resistance hit.

2/4/2008 Community Bk Sys Inc. (CBU) gave a watch list buy trigger on 2/8/2008 over $22.24. It has highs so far of $26.45 (+$4.21, +18.93%).

2/4/2008 WestAmerica Bancorporation (WABC) gave a watch list buy trigger on 3/11/2008 over $48.00. It has highs so far of $61.41 (+$13.41, +27.94%).

2/4/2008 C H Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW) gave a watch list buy trigger on 3/12/2008 over $52.68. It has highs so far of $63.43 (+$10.75, +20.41%).

2/4/2008 Longs to watch: THG (likely to take awhile and flush lower first),

2/4/2008 AT&T (T) gave a watch list short trigger on 2/5/2008 under $37.94. It has lows so far of $32.95 (+$4.99, +13.15%).

1/7/2008 Chubb Corp. (CB) gave a watch list short trigger on 1/7/2008 under $53.01. It has lows so far of $46.72 (+$6.29, +11.87%).

1/7/2008 Pall Corp. (PLL) gave a watch list short trigger on 1/7/2008 under $38.74. It has lows so far of $33.37 (+$5.37, +13.86%). Some trailing stops hit.

1/7/2008 Aqua America Inc. (WTR) gave a watch list short trigger on 1/9/2008 under $21.04. It has lows so far of $17.75 (+$3.29, +15.64%).

12/10/2007 Bard C R Inc. (BCR) gave a watch list buy trigger on 1/7/2008 over $95.33. It has highs so far of $100.33 (+$5.00, +5.24%).

11/26/2007 Greif, Inc. (GEF) Over the next couple of months I'll be monitoring GEF for more gradual corrections off the upper end of this range on light volume to begin building a position. I am looking for a break higher in GEF in mid-2008. Initial trigger on 11/28/2007. 1/28/2008, 2/26/2008, and 3/24/2008 offered additional entry triggers. It has highs so far of $72.00.

11/12/2007 Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) gave an initial buy trigger on 11/12/2007 over $37. It has highs so far of $48.95 (+$11.95, +32.30%).

11/12/2007 Lilly Eli & Co. (LLY) gave a short setup on 12/31/2007 under $53.71. It has lows of $46.60 (+$7.11, +13.24%).

11/5/2007 Magellan Health Services, Inc.  (MGLN) gave an initial buy trigger on 11/5/2007 over $46.08. It has highs so far of $49.25 (+$3.17, +6.88%). Initial warning given at time of first setup: This stock may easily congest or pullback now for several months, so consider that a current risk for those looking to hold long-term since the monthly trigger was a bit early on this one.

10/22/2007 NDS Group (NNDS) gave an early buy trigger on 11/28/2007 over $56. It has highs so far of $63.57 (+$7.57, +13.52%). Now giving the larger weekly correction we were looking at.

9/24/2007 Martek Biosciences Corp. (MATK) gave an initial buy trigger on 9/24/2007 over $28.84. It has highs so far of $36.20 (+$7.36, +25.52%).

9/24/2007 Bard C R Inc. CR (BCR) gave a buy trigger on 9/26/2007 over $87.46. It has highs so far of $100.33 (+$12.87, +14.72%).  9/10/2007 Cheesecake Factory Inc. (CAKE) gave an initial short trigger on 9/10/2007 under $24.07. It has lows so far of $17.24 (+$6.83, +28.38%). Shorter term trailing stops hit. Trailing stops hit for many.

9/10/2007 Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) gave a short setup on 9/10/2007 under $44.61. It has lows of $37.75 (+$6.86, +15.38%). Trailing stops hit for many.

9/10/2007 International Rectifier Corp. (IRF) gave a short setup on 9/10/2007 under $33.23. It has lows of $20.34 (+$12.89, +38.79%).

9/10/2007 Goldcorp Inc. New (GG) gave a buy setup on 9/11/2007 over $26.44. It has highs of $46.30 (+$19.86, +75.11%). Most traling stops hit.

8/6/2007 Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) gave an initial setup on 8/31/2007 over $32.06, but it can still have one more flush left in it on the monthly time time. It has highs of $54.86 (+$22.80, +71.12%). Initial targets hit. Some trailing stops hit.

12/4/2006 Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) gave a buy setup on 2/23/2007 at $30.08. It reached highs of $54.86 (+$24.78, +82.38%) so far. Initial targets hit. Some trailing stops hit.

* DISCLAIMER: Results are based upon best price hit before the position was closed, or the stop if that hit first. Note: Trading in commodities and securities may not be suitable for all individuals. Consult your broker or other professional to determine your suitability. The discussions provided by Trading From Main Street are for educational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell the referenced security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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