Position Trader

Open Positions:

10/25/2004 - ImClone Systems Incorporated (IMCL) is a biopharmaceutical company involved in advance oncology care by developing a portfolio of targeted biologic treatments designed to address the medical needs of patients with cancer (Reuters). I've been watching this stock for about a week. It has been basing very nicely at lows on the weekly charts over the last couple of month with light volume, suggesting that the support will give way to more selling. It might not set up on the weekly charts until the 20 week sma catches up though. Entry would be as the lows of this base give way. Those watching for swingtrades to trigger an entry might already have it from the Focus Letter, but letting this weekly base break will lower risk for a position trade. Stops would be over the highs of the base over the last couple months. IMCL lows so far are $39.73. This is looking very nice. Stops can be moved to over $52.60. - Toni

10/18/2004 - Old Dominion Fright Lines, Inc. (Nasdaq: ODFL) is a less-than-truckload (LTL) multi-regional motor carrier providing one- to five-day service among five regions in the United States and next-day and second-day service within these regions. Over the last several quarters Old Dominion has seen exception revenue growth of +59%, +33%, +28% and +12%. This is four solid quarters of accelerating earnings growth. The stock does have a higher PE than I like to see for an investable security (21) and is heavily followed and owned by banks and institutions. As an intermediate term trade, however, I think there are few stocks that look better than ODFL. The stock has been basing near new all time highs for several months after breaking out from a prior base last year. This type of action allows a stock to rest and is often seen before a stock takes off for impressive gains. Setup above $30.25 per share with my protective stop placed under $27.15. Highs of $33.80 so far. - Brandon

10/04/2004 - Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) designs, manufactures, markets and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits (ICs) for the worldwide semiconductor industry. This has been pulling back steadily on the weekly and monthly chart over the last year and has come into the 200 sma on the weekly and 30 sma on the monthly charts where it has rounded off at lows. Look for a buy over $23.51 with a stop under $19.71. It has reached $29.70. Monthly target is a retest of $35. To lower risk you could have used the 60 minute cup with handle going into the 18th (entry in the $22.15 zone.) Move stops to under $23. Can look to protect some partials. - Toni

8/16/2004 - Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage banking and consumer finance to consumers, businesses and institutions. On our watch list from May, WFC has been basing at highs over the past year. It holds interest as a potential breakout candidate for a long over $60 with a stop under the lows of the monthly base at the time of the setup for a hold of about 6 months. Earlier entries based on daily and weekly setups are possible but will have higher risk. Highs hit of $62.84. - Toni

5/24/2004 - Expeditors Int'l of WA (EXPD) was given long on 5/24/2004 for accumulation as a longer term hold on the monthly charts. The 20 month sma is support. $43.68-$44.15 was the range on the 24th. Highs of $58.40 so far. Should look to have partials protected. Trailing stops initiated. Some hit. - Toni

10/16/2003 - The Allstate Corporation (ALL) provided a monthly setup on October 16, 2003 over $40 with a stop under $34.48. It has reached a high of $51.50. Higher risk entry. Target is $50. Partials protected. $45.90 is 2001 highs. Those looking for only a several week hold will be out with a trailing stop. Monthly charts still look nice for continued upside but it will likely take at least several months to form a monthly bull flag. Trailing stop initiated. - Toni

Positions Closed This Past Year:

Stock	Entry Date	Position	Entry Price	Results	Additional Notes
Fairchild Semiconductor International, Inc. (FCS)	9/20/2004	long	over $14	Stopped under $13.41 if entered early. Swingtrade target hit with $15.89 highs if waited for the longer ideal base.	Swingtrade, potential position. Triggered earlier than wanted and hence was higher risk at initial setup. - Toni
The Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack (PBY)	7/6/2004	short	under $25.10	$13.20 (+$11.90, +47.41% move)	Weekly Avalanche. Stop over the 50 week sma of $25.50. (Given on June 14th.) Partials taken in the $20-$21 zone. Toni.
SanDisk Corporation (SNDK)	6/19/2004	long	over $25.75 (alternate entry was the trend channel along the 20 week sma breaks higher ($23.75 zone))	$31.96 with partials protected. Rest stopped with trailing stop.	- Toni
Engineered Support Systems, Inc. (EASI)	6/16/2004	long	over $52.81	$60.02 (+$7.21, +13.65% move)	Given by Toni. Those looking to hold several months would have hit trailing stops on any remaining shares. Given by Toni.
CI (CINGA Corp.)	5/17/2004	long	$65.90	$69.46 (+$3.56, 5.4% move) hit on the swingtrade given in watch letter. Stop hit on position trade under last weekly pivot of $62.40.	Toni.
The Indices: QQQ, SPY, DIA	5/10/2004	short	under $103.30 DIA, $36.34 QQQ or $36.63, $113.42 SPY	$98.15 DIA, $32.34 QQQ, $106.59 SPY	Bear flag off the 50 week sma. Shorter term traders took gains into the first part of August. Trailing stops hit on those holding longer.
Industrial Services of America, Inc. (IDSA)	4/23/2004	long	over $18.35	reached highs of $21.50 before stopping out under $14.25	Original notes: "You will want to use greater caution on this stock than other more well-known stocks I follow here because it will tend to have more volatility as a result of its lesser liquidity." Toni
GWW (W.W. Grainger, Inc.)	4/6/2004	long	over $49.02 (if using trigger on monthly charts)	$58.90 (+9.88, +20.15% move)	Trailing stops hit. Toni
Amer Pharmaceutical Ptnrs (APPX)	3/15/2004	long	above $39.70	$49.19 (+$9.49, +23.9% move)	Brandon
InterActiveCorp (IACI)	3/1/2004	long	over $32.70 or over $33.75	stopped under $30.00 (-$2.70, -9% move) or did not set up	"...you can look for an intraday setup on this stock (such as over $32.70), or the weekly would trigger over $33.75. Support is at $30." Did not set up on the weekly chart, but did break the prior day's highs for $32.70. - Toni
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)	2/23/2004	short	under $57.14	$51.17 (+$5.97, +10.45% move)	Initial stop was over $60. Trailing stops his on rest. Given by Toni.
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals)	2/11/2004	long	over $15.72	$24.91 (+$9.19, 58.5% move)	Watch list. Monthly cup with handle. Toni
Activision, Inc. (ATVI)	2/9/2004	long	over $13.17	$17.09 (+$3.92, +29.76% move)	Stop under $12.13. An intraday setup could also have been used.
PET sMART, Inc. (PETM)	1/28/2004	short	under $23.82	stopped over $25 (-$1.18, -5% move)	Weekly Avalanche. $22.96 lows hit before reversing to stop. Toni
KLIC (Kulicke and Soffa Ind.)	1/27/2004	short	under $13.97	$10.51 (+3.46, +24.77% move)	Watch list weekly Avalanche. Toni
AWA (America West Holdings)	1/26/2004	short	under $12.16	$7.92 (+$4.24, +34.87% move)	Watch list weekly Avalanche. Toni
FLML (Flamel Tech. ADS)	1/26/2004	short	under $27.20	$23.02 (+$4.18, +15.37% move)	Watch list weekly Avalanche. Toni
AFLAC Incorporated (AFL)	1/20/2004	long	over $35.08	$42.60 (+$7.98, +22.75%)	Alternative intraday setups or a break of the trend line could also have been used for entry. Trailing stops no lower than a break under $39 or the 20 week sma. Toni
Primus Telecom. (PRTL)	1/6/2004	long	over $11.62	$13.38 (+$1.76, 15.15% move)	Watch list bull flag. Toni
Motorola, Inc. (MOT)	1/5/2004	long	over $14.81	$18.90 (+$4.09, +27.62% move)	Watch list bull flag. Toni
Allergan, Inc. (AGN)	1/5/2004	long	over $77.20	$90.21 (+$13.01, +16.85% move)	Watch list bull flag. Toni
AuthentiDate Holding Corp. (ADAT)	1/5/2004	long	over $12.96	$18.69 (+$5.73, +44.21% move)	Watch list bull flag. Toni
ESS Tech., Inc. (ESST)	1/5/2004	long	over $17.50	$19.38 (+$1.88, +10.74% move)	Watch list bull flag. Toni
Microchop Tech. Inc. (MCHP)	1/5/2004	long	over $34.13.	$34.88. Trailing stops on 1/13/2004 under $34.14.	Weekly bull flag. Treated with tight trailing stops due to slow follow through and weaker performance. Toni.
FARO Technologies, Inc. (FARO)	1/05/2004	long	over $26.35	$34.94 (+$8.59, +32.64% move)	Target hit. Given by Toni.
Affiliated Computer Services, Inc. (ACS)	12/04/2003	long	over $50.50	$57.96 (+$7.46, +14.77% move)	Trailing stops on remaining shares under $48 for long term holders. (Toni)
Snap-On In. (SNA)	12/11/2003 or 12/18/2003	long	over $31	$34.13 (+$3.13, +10.10% move)	Watch list stock. Toni. Phoenix.
Royal Dutch Petrol (RD)	12/08/2003	long	over $46.65	$54.00 (+$7.35, +15.76% move) hit on 1/6/2004	Remaining closed with a trailing stop. Given by Toni.
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (KKD)	11/17/2003	short	under $41.72 (or using intraday setups to lower risk.	$36.02 ($4.70, +13.66%). Partials before earnings.	Swingtrade closed before earnings (ahead of Nov. 21, 2003). Given by Brandon & Toni. Target zone was $37, which hit on 12/12/2003.
DENTSPLY International Inc. (XRAY)	11/14/2003	short	under $43.65 ($44.00 if using an intraday setup)	$41.85 (+$1.80, +4.3% move), $45.23 (-$1.58, -3.78% move partials position trade	Given by Toni. Swingtraders were able to take some gains and position traders partials, but they stopped out of the rest.
ChevronTexaco Corporation (CVX)	11/13/2003	long	over $75	$87.64 (+$12.64, +16.85% move)	Remaining closed with a trailing stop. Given by Toni.
Amazon.com (AMZN)	11/10/2003	short	under $54	$47 (+$7, +12.96% move)	Toni watch stock. Swingtraders closed on Nov. 18th.
Priceline.com Inc. (PCLN)	10/20/2003	short	under $30.25	$16.12 (+$14.13, +46.71% move)	Toni watch stock.
Biomet, Inc. (BMET)	10/20/2003	long	above $33.97	$38.02 (+$4.02, +11.92% move)	Toni watch stock.
Baxter International, Inc. (BAX)	10/22/2003	short	under $28.88	$26.21 (+$2.67, +9.25% move)	Toni watch stock.
CenturyTel, Inc. (CTL)	10/09/2003	long	over $35.85	$32.75 (-$3.10, -8.6% move)	It reached a high of $36.76 (+$0.91, +2.5%). Stop moved to under $32.75 and hit.
Nextel Communications (NXTP)	10/1/2003	long	over $8.06	$13.05 (+$4.99, +61.91% move)	Toni watch stock.
Nextel Communications (NXTL)	9/23/2003	long	over $20.29	$29.37 (+$9.08, 44.75% move)	Toni watch stock.
Schlumberger Limited (SLB)	8/20/2003	long	over $48.61	$52.10 (+$3.49, +7.18% move)	Trailing stop moved to under $48 on remaining shares (Toni).
Verizon (VZ)	8/25/2003	short	under $35	$31.10 (+$3.90, 11.14% move)	Given by Toni.
McKesson Corporation (MCK)	9/15/2003	long	over $34.50 for the daily setup and early entry on a weekly setup and over $35 on the weekly	$36.27 (+$1.77, +5.13% move)	A daily setup stop was under $33.88, or under $31.60 for a position trade. Closed as a swingtrade near highs. Given by Toni.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)	9/29/2003	short	under $52.40	$50.68 (+$1.74, 3.28% move)	Treated more as a swingtrade with position trade potential. Given by Brandon. Note: In the room stops were adjusted quickly as noted in the prior Position Trader and it was followed as a swingtrade with partials taken near lows on 9/30 and trailing stops hit on the rest.
IVAX Corporation (Amex - IVX)	8/11/2003	long	at $18.27 (over $18.20)	$20.74 (+$2.47, +13.52% move)	Trailing stop under $18.75 hit on remaining shares. Given by Toni.
Chubb Corporation (CB)	7/28/2003	long	above $61	$69.29 (+$8.29, +13.59%)	Remaining shares closed by trailing stop. Given by Toni.
American Power Conversion Corporation (APCC)	6/23/2003	long	above $17.40	$27.42 (+$10.02, +57.59% move)	Position by Brandon. 1/9/2004 initial trailing stops.
WebMD Corporation (HLTH)	5/2/2003	long	above $10.00	$12.49 (+$2.49, +24.9%)	Position by Brandon.
SPY	8/4/2003	short	under $98.25	stop loss over $101 (-$2.75, -2.78%) hit	Position by Brandon. Room traders had stops over $102 with an entry at $99.25 which is still open.
Clear Channel Communications Inc. (CCU)	5/12/2003	long	above $40.30	$43.50 (+$3.20, +7.94%) partials, trailing stop to under $39 (-$1.30 , -3.23%)	Target was $50-55 but hit its trailing stop on the rest of the position first. (Toni)
Icos Corporation (ICOS)	7/8/2003	long	above $40	$44.26 (+$4.26, +10.65%)	Entry was higher risk (Brandon)
Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV)	5/12/2003	short	under $36.18 (or $35 for more conservative entry)	adjusted stop under $37 (-0.82, -2.27%)	had reached lows of $33.68 (+$2.50, +6.91%) but stopped with a trailing stop (Toni)
The Gap, Inc. (GPS)	4/29/2003	long	above $16.75	$19.63 (+$2.88, +17.19%)	Initial target was $18.50.
Western Digital Corp. (WDC)	3/25/2003	long	above $8.20	$13.05 on 6/6/03 (+$4.85 , +59.15%).	Objective hit. (Toni)
Semi-Conductors Holders Trust (SMH)	1/13/2002	long	above $26	stop under $24.25 (-$1.75, -6.73%)	Given by Brandon.
Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL)	1/6/2003	long	above $45.83	$57.91 (+$12.08, +26.36%)	Given by Brandon.
CV Therapeutics, Inc. (CVTX)	12/30/2002	Short, bear flag	under $18.60	$15.73 (+$2.87, +15.43%)	lower risk setup on 1/23 under $19.50 (+$3.77, +19.33%), Given by Toni.
General Dynamics (GD)	12/16/2002	Short , Avalanche	under $77.20	$50.00 (+$27.50, +35.23%)	Partials were protected around $60, Given by Toni.