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Synergy by TFMS
A Weekly Position Trading Newsletter for the Discerning Investor
http://www.tradingfrommainstreet.com
Editors: Toni Hansen & Brandon Fredrickson
October 11, 2004

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is a provider of payroll and integrated human resource and employee benefits outsourcing solutions for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States. (Reuters). After selling off sharply over the summer, PAYX has been basing at lows for the past couple of months as volume has dropped off. This suggests that when the current base breaks, it will break lower. Watch for a daily swingtrade short setup or else a break in the current lows of the trend channel (shown in red). Stops should be over the last pivot high on the weekly chart at the time of the set up (currently over 32.31). Look to hold this for several months.


http://tradingfrommainstreet.com/images/PositionTradeLetter/PT20041011payx.gif



Open Positions:

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) designs, manufactures, markets and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits (ICs) for the worldwide semiconductor industry. This has been pulling back steadily on the weekly and monthly chart over the last year and has come into the 200 sma on the weekly and 30 sma on the monthly charts where it has rounded off at lows. Look for a buy over $23.51 with a stop under $19.71. Monthly target is a retest of $35. To lower risk you can watch for a setup on the 60 minute charts.

 8/16/2004 - Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage banking and consumer finance to consumers, businesses and institutions. On our watch list from May, WFC has been basing at highs over the past year. It holds interest as a potential breakout candidate for a long over $60 with a stop under the lows of the monthly base at the time of the setup for a hold of about 6 months. Earlier entries based on daily and weekly setups are possible but will have higher risk.

Fairchild Semiconductor International, Inc. (FCS) (9/20/2004) This triggered earlier than we wanted in last week's position trader, but I will follow it nevertheless. Ideally I wanted to see it base longer to build up steam. By not doing so it adds risk.  The setup triggered  over $14 and was given as a swingtrade with position trade potential. Stops for the swingtrade initially were under 13.41. This price broke but the 20 and 50 day sma held very well. This went on to trigger the lower risk setup we were initially looking for because the early breakout attempt merely fell into the longer base we were wanting. This time though the stop was under $13.25. Those who held based upon the support holding or who re-entered based upon the larger base have taken at least partials for a swingtrade.

6/19/2004 - SanDisk Corporation (SNDK)  This was a continuation off lows on an upside breakout over $25.75 with a stop under $19.28. The alternate entry was the trend channel along the 20 week sma breaks higher ($23.75 zone) This has reached highs so far of $31.96. Partials protected. Trailing stops under $23.50. - Toni

Expeditors Int'l of WA (EXPD) was given long on 5/24/2004 for accumulation as a longer term hold on the monthly charts. The 20 month sma is support. $43.68-$44.15 was the range on the 24th. Highs of $55.61 so far. Should look to have partials protected. (Toni)

The Allstate Corporation (ALL) provided a monthly setup on October 16, 2003 over $40 with a stop under $34.48. It has reached a high of $49.22 (+$9.22, +23.05%). Higher risk entry. Target is $50. Partials protected. $45.90 is 2001 highs. Those looking for only a several week hold will be out with a trailing stop. Monthly charts still look nice for continued upside but it will likely take at least several months to form a monthly bull flag. Trailing stop initiated. (Toni)


Watch list stocks:

From May 17, 2004 :
Long: ZION, WMB, WFC

From July 19:
Long: USB, AMGN, BP
Short: WY

From Sep. 20:
Long: ESST, LRCX


Positions Closed This Past Year:

Stock
 Entry Date
 Position Entry Price
 Results
 Additional Notes
The Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack (PBY)  7/6/2004 short
 under $25.10 $13.20 (+$11.90, +47.41% move) Weekly Avalanche. Stop over the 50 week sma of $25.50.  (Given on June 14th.) Partials taken in the $20-$21 zone. Toni.
Engineered Support Systems, Inc. (EASI) 
6/16/2004
 long
 over $52.81
 $60.02 (+$7.21, +13.65% move) Given by Toni. Those looking to hold several months would have hit trailing stops on any remaining shares. Given by Toni.
CI (CINGA Corp.)
5/17/2004 long
 $65.90 $69.46 (+$3.56, 5.4% move) hit on the swingtrade given in watch letter. Stop hit on position trade under last weekly pivot of $62.40.
 Toni.
The Indices: QQQ, SPY, DIA  5/10/2004 short under $103.30 DIA, $36.34 QQQ or $36.63, $113.42 SPY $98.15 DIA, $32.34 QQQ, $106.59 SPY
 Bear flag off the 50 week sma. Shorter term traders took gains into the first part of August. Trailing stops hit on those holding longer.
Industrial Services of America, Inc. (IDSA)
4/23/2004 long over $18.35 reached highs of $21.50 before stopping out under $14.25
Original notes: "You will want to use greater caution on this stock than other more well-known stocks I follow here because it will tend to have more volatility as a result of its lesser liquidity."  Toni
GWW (W.W. Grainger, Inc.) 4/6/2004 long over $49.02 (if using trigger on monthly charts) $58.90 (+9.88, +20.15% move) Trailing stops hit. Toni
Amer Pharmaceutical Ptnrs (APPX) 3/15/2004 long above $39.70 $49.19 (+$9.49, +23.9% move) Brandon
InterActiveCorp (IACI)

3/1/2004
 long over $32.70 or over $33.75 stopped under $30.00 (-$2.70, -9% move) or did not set up
 "...you can look for an intraday setup on this stock (such as over $32.70), or the weekly would trigger over $33.75. Support is at $30." Did not set up on the weekly chart, but did break the prior day's highs for $32.70. - Toni
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)  2/23/2004 short under $57.14 $51.17 (+$5.97, +10.45% move) Initial stop was over $60. Trailing stops his on rest. Given by Toni.
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals) 
2/11/2004 long over $15.72 $24.91 (+$9.19, 58.5% move)
 Watch list. Monthly cup with handle. Toni
Activision, Inc. (ATVI)  2/9/2004 long over $13.17 $17.09 (+$3.92, +29.76% move) Stop under $12.13. An intraday setup could also have been used.
PET sMART, Inc. (PETM)
1/28/2004 short
 under $23.82 stopped over $25 (-$1.18, -5% move)
 Weekly Avalanche. $22.96 lows hit before reversing to stop. Toni
KLIC (Kulicke and Soffa Ind.)
 1/27/2004 short under $13.97 $10.51 (+3.46, +24.77% move) Watch list weekly Avalanche. Toni
AWA (America West Holdings)
 1/26/2004 short under $12.16 $7.92 (+$4.24, +34.87% move) Watch list weekly Avalanche. Toni
FLML (Flamel Tech. ADS) 1/26/2004 short under $27.20 $23.02 (+$4.18, +15.37% move)
 Watch list weekly Avalanche. Toni
AFLAC Incorporated (AFL)
1/20/2004 long over $35.08 $42.60 (+$7.98, +22.75%) Alternative intraday setups or a break of the trend line could also have been used for entry. Trailing stops no lower than a break under $39 or the 20 week sma. Toni
Primus Telecom. (PRTL)
1/6/2004 long over $11.62 $13.38 (+$1.76, 15.15% move)
 Watch list bull flag. Toni
Motorola, Inc. (MOT)
1/5/2004 long over $14.81 $18.90 (+$4.09, +27.62% move)
 Watch list bull flag. Toni
Allergan, Inc. (AGN)  1/5/2004 long over $77.20 $90.21 (+$13.01, +16.85% move)
 Watch list bull flag. Toni
AuthentiDate Holding Corp. (ADAT)  1/5/2004 long over $12.96 $18.69 (+$5.73, +44.21% move)
 Watch list bull flag. Toni
ESS Tech., Inc. (ESST)  1/5/2004 long
 over $17.50 $19.38 (+$1.88, +10.74% move)
 Watch list bull flag. Toni
Microchop Tech. Inc. (MCHP)
 1/5/2004
 long
 over $34.13.
 $34.88. Trailing stops on 1/13/2004 under $34.14.
 Weekly bull flag. Treated with tight trailing stops due to slow follow through and weaker performance. Toni.
FARO Technologies, Inc. (FARO) 1/05/2004 long over $26.35 $34.94 (+$8.59, +32.64% move) Target hit. Given by Toni.
Affiliated Computer Services, Inc. (ACS)
12/04/2003 long over $50.50 $57.96 (+$7.46, +14.77% move) Trailing stops on remaining shares under $48 for long term holders. (Toni)
Snap-On In. (SNA)  12/11/2003 or 12/18/2003
 long
 over $31
$34.13 (+$3.13, +10.10% move) Watch list stock. Toni. Phoenix.
Royal Dutch Petrol (RD)
12/08/2003 long over $46.65 $54.00 (+$7.35, +15.76% move) hit on 1/6/2004
 Remaining closed with a trailing stop. Given by Toni.
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (KKD)
11/17/2003 short
 under $41.72 (or using intraday setups to lower risk. $36.02 ($4.70, +13.66%). Partials before earnings. Swingtrade closed before earnings (ahead of Nov. 21, 2003). Given by Brandon & Toni. Target zone was $37, which hit on 12/12/2003.
DENTSPLY International Inc. (XRAY) 11/14/2003 short
 under $43.65 ($44.00 if using an intraday setup) $41.85 (+$1.80, +4.3% move), $45.23 (-$1.58, -3.78% move partials position trade
 Given by Toni. Swingtraders were able to take some gains and position traders partials, but they stopped out of the rest.
ChevronTexaco Corporation (CVX)
11/13/2003 long
 over $75 $87.64 (+$12.64, +16.85% move) Remaining closed with a trailing stop. Given by Toni.
Amazon.com (AMZN)
 11/10/2003
 short
 under $54 $47 (+$7, +12.96% move)
 Toni watch stock. Swingtraders closed on Nov. 18th.
Priceline.com Inc. (PCLN)
 10/20/2003
short
 under $30.25 $16.12 (+$14.13, +46.71% move)
 Toni watch stock.
Biomet, Inc. (BMET)
 10/20/2003
 long
 above $33.97
 $38.02 (+$4.02, +11.92% move)
 Toni watch stock.
Baxter International, Inc. (BAX)
 10/22/2003 short
 under $28.88 $26.21 (+$2.67, +9.25% move)
 Toni watch stock.
CenturyTel, Inc. (CTL)
10/09/2003 long
 over $35.85 $32.75 (-$3.10, -8.6% move)
 It reached a high of $36.76 (+$0.91, +2.5%). Stop moved to under $32.75 and hit.
Nextel Communications (NXTP)
 10/1/2003 long
 over $8.06 $13.05 (+$4.99, +61.91% move)
 Toni watch stock.
Nextel Communications (NXTL)
 9/23/2003 long over $20.29 $29.37 (+$9.08, 44.75% move)
 Toni watch stock.
Schlumberger Limited (SLB)
8/20/2003 long
 over $48.61 $52.10 (+$3.49, +7.18% move) Trailing stop moved to under $48 on remaining shares (Toni).
Verizon (VZ) 8/25/2003 short
 under $35 $31.10 (+$3.90, 11.14% move)
 Given by Toni.
McKesson Corporation (MCK) 9/15/2003 long
 over $34.50 for the daily setup and early entry on a weekly setup and over $35 on the weekly $36.27 (+$1.77, +5.13% move) A daily setup stop was under $33.88, or under $31.60 for a position trade.  Closed as a swingtrade near highs. Given by Toni.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) 9/29/2003 short under $52.40 $50.68 (+$1.74, 3.28% move)
 Treated more as a swingtrade with position trade potential. Given by Brandon. Note: In the room stops were adjusted quickly as noted in the prior Position Trader and it was followed as a swingtrade with partials taken near lows on 9/30 and trailing stops hit on the rest.
IVAX Corporation (Amex - IVX)
8/11/2003 long
 at $18.27 (over $18.20) $20.74 (+$2.47, +13.52% move) Trailing stop under $18.75 hit on remaining shares. Given by Toni.
Chubb Corporation (CB) 7/28/2003 long above $61
 $69.29 (+$8.29, +13.59%) Remaining shares closed by trailing stop. Given by Toni.
American Power Conversion Corporation (APCC) 6/23/2003 long above $17.40 $27.42 (+$10.02, +57.59% move) Position by Brandon. 1/9/2004 initial trailing stops.
WebMD Corporation (HLTH)
 5/2/2003
 long
 above $10.00
 $12.49 (+$2.49, +24.9%)
 Position by Brandon.
SPY
 8/4/2003
 short
 under $98.25
 stop loss over $101 (-$2.75, -2.78%) hit
 Position by Brandon. Room traders had stops over $102 with an entry at $99.25 which is still open.
Clear Channel Communications Inc. (CCU)
 5/12/2003
 long
 above $40.30
 $43.50 (+$3.20, +7.94%) partials, trailing stop to under $39 (-$1.30 , -3.23%)
 Target was $50-55 but hit its trailing stop on the rest of the position first. (Toni)
Icos Corporation (ICOS)
 7/8/2003
 long
 above $40
 $44.26 (+$4.26, +10.65%)
 Entry was higher risk (Brandon)
Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV)
 5/12/2003
 short
 under $36.18 (or $35 for more conservative entry)
 adjusted stop under $37 (-0.82, -2.27%)
 had reached lows of $33.68 (+$2.50, +6.91%) but stopped with a trailing stop (Toni)
The Gap, Inc. (GPS)
 4/29/2003
 long
 above $16.75
 $19.63 (+$2.88, +17.19%)
 Initial target was $18.50.
Western Digital Corp. (WDC)
 3/25/2003
 long
 above $8.20
 $13.05 on 6/6/03 (+$4.85 , +59.15%).
Objective hit. (Toni)
Semi-Conductors Holders Trust (SMH)
 1/13/2002
 long
 above $26
 stop under $24.25 (-$1.75, -6.73%)
 Given by Brandon.
Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL)
 1/6/2003
 long
 above $45.83
 $57.91 (+$12.08, +26.36%)
 Given by Brandon.
CV Therapeutics, Inc. (CVTX)
 12/30/2002
 Short, bear flag
 under $18.60
 $15.73 (+$2.87, +15.43%)
 lower risk setup on 1/23 under $19.50 (+$3.77, +19.33%), Given by Toni.
General Dynamics (GD)
 12/16/2002
 Short , Avalanche
 under $77.20
 $50.00 (+$27.50, +35.23%)
 Partials were protected around $60, Given by Toni.


© 2004 Trading From Main Street. All rights reserved.

DISCLAIMER: Results are based upon best price hit before the position was closed, or the stop if that hit first before gains were taken. Note: Trading in commodities and securities may not be suitable for all individuals. Consult your broker or other professional to determine your suitability. The discussions provided by Trading From Main Street are for educational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell the referenced security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.