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FOR THIS WEEK'S POSITION TRADE NEWSLETTER
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Daily
Editorial: |
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Dow and S&P 500 Break Solidly Out of
Daily Range
Good morning! After a
great deal of congestion and concern over the past month, the market
finally put in its first solid uptrend day since April 18th, at least
in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average... The day began
with a strong upside gap coming out of the premarket economic data.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 138,000, coming in under expectations,
while the unemployment rate remained at 4.7% as anticipated. This
offered hope that the Fed will begin to ease rate hikes, although
another move of +.25 is still expected from this week's upcoming FOMC
meeting.
The dollar fell following Friday's data release while the market
overall picked up steam. Advancers outpaced decliners 3 to 1 on the New
York Stock Exchange and 19 to 11 on the Nasdaq. Among the leaders were
brokers (+3.2%), biotechs (+3.2%), residential builders (+2.5%),
utilities (+2.2%), and oil services (+1.7%). Volume was moderate.
It did not take long for the Nasdaq to show
its relative weakness. Within 15 minute of the open it began to fall,
pulling back into its 5 minute 20 sma and support from the highs of the
prior afternoon before stalling. This support hit with the 10:15 ET
reversal period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average once again had the
most relative strength, basing at highs throughout this correction. As
the three indices hit their 5 minute 20 sma, however, they all broke
higher. The Dow led the way.
While the Dow and S&P 500 both broke to
new multi-year highs, the Nasdaq had a more difficult time gaining
strength. Its upside pace intraday was much more gradual than the other
two indices and it was unable to even retest the morning highs before
noon. As the market began to correct mid-day, the Nasdaq fell the
hardest, coming back into the zone of morning lows at the 13:00 ET
reversal period. This degree of retracement lent the index to yet
another trading range on the 15 minute charts, much like the prior
trading day.
Once the 13:00
ET reversal period hit the market again began to move higher. The Dow
and S&P 500 again reached new intraday levels, climbing until
nearly 15:00 ET. This upside move lasted approximately as long as the
late morning rally before slowing. The last hour and 15 minutes of the
day saw little excitement. Volume was light and a narrow trading range
again persisted into the close. Overall I am expecting this upside to
continue into Monday, but slow ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting.
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Economic
Reports and
Events:
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May 08: -
May 09: Wholesale Inventories
for Mar (10:00 am)
May 10: Crude Inventories
05/05 (10:30 am), FOMC policy statement (14:15 pm)
May 11: Business Inventories
for Mar (8:30 am), Initial Claims 05/06 (8:30 am), Retail Sales for Apr
(8:30 am), Retail Sales ex-auto for Apr (8:30 am)
May 12: Export Prices ex-ag.
for Apr (8:30 am), Import Prices ex-oil for Apr (8:30 am), Trade
Balance for Mar (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment-Prel. for May (9:50 am
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Earnings
Announcements of Interest: |
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Only stocks with an
average daily volume of 500K+ are
listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your
stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) =
Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open,
(?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
May 08:
ABP (B), ARXX (?), AVNX (?), BBD (?), BLKB (A), CSV (A), CCRT (A), EAGL
(A), FLR (A), FTI (A), FTO (?), HW (B), HNT (?), HOC (B), IN (A), MYOG
(?), OSIP (A), GOLD (02:00 am ET), SBAC (A), SONS (A), STO (2:30 am ET)
May 09:
SIL (?), AZPN (A), ASYT (4:00 pm ET), BIDU (A), ITU (?), CELL (A), CVC
(B), CSCO (?), DESC (A), DYN (B), ENTG (B), FCH (A), GTI (B), HSP (B),
IDTI (A), LAMR (?), MTSN (A), MYL (A), NMTI (B), PGN (10:00 am ET),
SAPE (A), SLE (?), SINA (A), TMTA (A), LCC (B), DIS (?), WGR (B), WFII
(A)
May 10:
WEL (?), RIO (?), DCEL (?), DQE (B), ENER (?), HJT (B), GSS (A), IVAN
(?), MIR (?), MT (?)
May 11:
AEM (A), BGO (A), DT (?), EXPE (A), JCP (?), KSS (?), PBY (A), UBB (?),
URBN (06:00 am ET)
May 12:
DRS (B), PBR (?)
Note: All economic numbers
and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance.
Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this
column.
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