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March 13, 2006
 


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MainStreet on Hotcomm

CLICK HERE to learn how you can participate in Toni's upcoming mentoring program, live on Hotcomm! 

Upcoming course dates:
March 20-24, 2006

Disclaimer:  Positions discussed for educational purposes only and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading in securities or commodities may not be suitable for all individuals.

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       Daily Editorial:
 

Dow Attempts a Breakout While Market Ranges

Good morning! The market retained control of its back and forth, back and forth bias on Friday as the week wound to a close. There was not a great deal of movement intraday, but the indices still managed to put in a higher close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) remained the market leader, gaining 104.06 points to close at 11,076.34. The S&P 500 ($SPX) came in second at +9.35 to close at 1,281.58, while the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) also managed to edge up a bit to gain 12.32 points and end the week at 2,262.04.
 
http://tradingfrommainstreet.com/images/FocusLetter/20060313nas.gif

Most of the action in the market on Friday took place in the morning. The  indices experienced a great deal of divergence initially out of the open. The Dow and S&P 500 opened slightly higher, while the Nasdaq began to sell off immediately out of an even open. This initial wave of selling pulled the S&P slightly lower, but the majority of it was confined to the Nasdaq. Just after 10:00 ET, after hitting the prior daily lows from last month as strong support, it reversed just as quickly as it had sold off. Volume accompanied the strong upside surge which took the Dow to new weekly highs, but only brought the Nasdaq to 5 minute 200 sma resistance and the prior afternoon highs.

http://tradingfrommainstreet.com/images/FocusLetter/20060313sp.gif
The early morning reversal was enough to create some caution on the part of the bears, especially since this marked the third day of higher highs on the Dow. It was not able to sustain its momentum despite the volume, however, over noon. After attempting several slightly higher highs, the pace began to change once more intraday and those trapped at the new highs began to remember the last couple of weeks. At the 14:30 ET reversal period the 15 minute 20 sma support gave way to a strong retracement of the morning trend, albeit short-lived. The market managed a bit of a recovery into the close, but it lacked the gusto of the morning ascent.

http://tradingfrommainstreet.com/images/FocusLetter/20060313dow.gif

Heading into Monday, the majority of the setups I have come across on the daily charts have been on the long side. When I look at the longer weekly and monthly charts, however, there appears to still be a good deal if room to move lower. I am also not convinced that the intraday upside is sustainable at this point yet, because I do not feel that the sharp downside in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has really had enough time to correct and to allow the pace of the selling to slow versus the upside. There is still the potential of more of a range in the market before we see a stronger breakout. That being said, I have been fairly evening split between shorting and buying stocks over the past several weeks and there was not much on Friday to give me a strong intraday bias heading into Monday.

Friday's Swingtrade Watch List Recap: Long: FD, EMR, CHT, and CIT. Short: CHK, MOT, XTO and PCAR.

Stocks to watch for Monday: Long: GLW, ARO, STXS, IYZ. Short: SMH

UPCOMING MENTORING OPPORTUNITIES:

To further you own knowledge of market activity and technical analysis, you may be interested in participating in one of my upcoming online seminars. Held March 20-24, I will be utilizing the Hotcomm platform which will allow participants the same opportunities as they would attending a class on-site. For more information, click on the journal image at the right hand side of my site at http://www.tonihansen.com or email me directly at toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com. To register CLICK HERE.

When asking those who attended my last class which aspects of my course were most beneficial, their responses were very similar:

"The concepts introduced such as pace and pace within patterns which were new to me and which I HAVEN'T SEEN ANYWHERE ELSE." - Larry
"I found everything in the course to be beneficial... It ranked as the best I have seen. Seriously, cant imagine any course being better. Hotcomm is a virtual chatroom where one can see charts and listen to commentary live!" - Karl
"The whole course covers everything you need to know about being a successful trader.... I have gone from an "unprofitable trader" to being a "PROFITABLE TRADER."  Your course made the difference...." - Jeff
 
 
 
 Economic Reports and Events:

Mar 13: -

Mar 14: Current Account for Q4 (8:30 am), Retail Sales for Feb (8:30 am), Retail Sales ex-auto for Feb (8:30 am), Business Inventories for Jan (10:00 am)

Mar 15: Export Prices ex-ag. for Feb (8:30 am), Import Prices ex-oil. for Feb (8:30 am), NY Empire State Index for Mar (8:30 am), Net Foreign Purchases for Mar (9:00 am), Crude Inventories 03/10 (10:30 am), Fed’s Beige Book (14:00 pm)

Mar 16: Building Permits for Feb (8:30 am), Core CPI for Feb (8:30 am), CPI for Feb (8:30 am), Housing Starts for Feb (8:30 am), Initial Claims 03/11 (8:30 am), Philadelphia Fed for Mar (12:00 am)

Mar 17: Capacity Utilization for Feb (9:15 am), Industrial Production for Feb (9:15 am), Mich Sentiment-Prel for Mar (9:50 am)

Mar 20: Leading Indicators for Feb (10:00 am)

Mar 21: Core PPI for Feb (8:30 am), PPI for Feb (8:30 am)
 
   Earnings Announcements of Interest:
 
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing

Mar 13: DNDN (?), IDWK (?), PVX (?), SONS (A)

Mar 14: GS (B), MIR (?), PDE (A), SUG (B)

Mar 15: ADRX (08:00 am ET), CHRS (B), CMVT (A), DISH (?), HOTT (A), IO (a), ICO (A), IVAN (?), LEH (B), MRX (A), ROST (B), TRLG (A)

Mar 16: SIL (?), BKS (B), BSC (B), CHL (?), CTAS (A), CPWM (B), ERJ (?), NSTK (A), PTEN (?), PETC (A)

Mar 17: -

Mar 20: CNTF (?), DRI (?), ORCL (A), PTR (?), SHFL (?)

Mar 21: BMET (B), DG (?), FRED (?), GME (B), NKE (A), SIGM (?)

Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.
 

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